Subscribers often ask "once you decide to purchase
an option how do you select a strike price?” For most actively traded stocks
there are dozens of option strike prices to choose from. At option
expiration an option loses all time value and is comprised of only intrinsic
value. An ‘in-the-money’ call option is comprised of both time value and
intrinsic value. The deeper an option is ‘in-the-money’ the more intrinsic
value it will have. An ‘in-the-money’ call option does not require a large
upward price move in the underlying stock to break even or to produce a
profit. An ‘out-of-the-money’ does require a large upward price
move in the underlying stock to break even or to produce a profit.
Of course,
‘out-of-the-money’ options will produce a higher percentage return than
‘in-the-money’ options if there is a substantial price increase in the
underlying stock. But remember that when you invest in options you must be
correct not only about the future price movement of the underlying stock but
you must also be correct about the time frame during which this movement must
occur (before option expiration). You must plan on the possibility that you
are not correct about the price movement and/or time frame. If you are wrong
about the price direction or time frame you could lose your whole investment
with an ‘out-of-the-money’ option. This is not an acceptable risk if you want
to ‘stay in the game’ after unanticipated market corrections or price
declines.
After many years of trying
to ‘Hit a Home Run’ by investing in ‘out-of-the-money’ options I realized
that this type of strategy was too risky as I had too many ‘out-of-the-money’
options expire worthless. No matter how good your stock selection is, there
will be periods when you are wrong and cannot afford to risk your options
expiring worthless.
Every trader has a
different risk tolerance and must decide if they want to trade ‘in-the-money’
call options with lower risk and a smaller profit potential or
‘out-of-the-money’ calls with higher risk but also with greater profit
potential. Purchasing an ‘out-of-the-money’ call option requires a
substantial price increase in the underlying stock price in order to be
profitable and incurs considerably more risk than an ‘in-the-money’ option. A
flat or slightly down price movement in the underlying stock at option
expiration can result in a total loss of your investment for an
‘out-of-the-money’ option.
I subscribe to several
option advisory services as I am always learning new ways to profit from
options. The tables below list the recent open and closed trade record for a
popular option service that I subscribe to as of September 25th.
This service only makes recommendations to purchase ‘out-of-the-money’
options hoping to make huge profits on lower cost options. But you can see
from the track record below that the last 12 recommendations are all losers
with an average loss of 68.1% demonstrating how difficult it is to make money
with ‘out-of-the-money’ options. All out ‘out-of-the-money’ options expire
worthless at option expiration and you can see from the 'Closed Trade Record'
table below that all of the closed trades expired worthless or close to
worthless.
All
Out-of-the-Money Options Expire Worthless at Option Expiration
Open Trade
Record
Entry
Date
Return
17-Sep
-3.5%
14-Sep
-59.5%
14-Sep
-77.8%
7-Sep
-11.5%
7-Sep
-3.9%
31-Aug
-68.8%
Closed Trade Record
Close
Date
Return
21-Sep
-95.0%
21-Sep
-97.4%
17-Aug
-100.0%
17-Aug
-100.0%
17-Aug
-100.0%
17-Aug
-100.0%
Avg
Return
-68.1%
When I purchase a call
option or recommend a call option purchase to my subscribers I normally
invest in ‘in-the-money’ options which incur less risk than
‘out-of-the-money’ options. The copy of my brokerage account Profit/Loss
Report below shows $254,006.83 in open trade profits generated from
purchasing ‘in-the-money’ options. All trades are profitable with an average
return of 114.9%. In this example investing in ‘in-the-money’ call options
helped contribute to a high percentage of winning trades.
Advantages of ‘In-the-Money’ Call Purchases versus ‘Out-of-the-Money’
■
‘In-the-Money’ calls contain less time value and more intrinsic value
■
Does not require large stock price increase to breakeven or profit